Global Climate Agreement

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The UN climate negotiations have not produced a "solution" to the climate crisis. Substantial proposals that would solve the problem have been put forward, but have not managed to be taken into account seriously. In order to get to a solution, we need to learn from experience, think outside the box and focus on strategic levers.

Contents

Questions

  • Which obstacles have previous proposals failed to overcome?
  • What societal conditions need to change?
  • Which potentials have not been used sufficiently to date?

Success criteria

Must-have:

  • ambition: achieves climate targets
  • prospects for consensus: relevant countries are likely to agree (two dimenstions of this: popular support and political feasibility)
  • champion available (a country willing to feed it directly into the negotiations or another influential actor ready to suggest it to governments)
  • adaptability: a process exists/is created for modifying the proposal together with the actors until it meets their criteria and is taken forward

Optional:

  • robustness: progress cannot easily be undone
  • possibility to (easily) ramp up ambition down the road
  • easy start: possibility to initiate even in the absence of consensus, pioneers can start without delay and without negative consequences or opportunity costs
  • simplicity: easy to administer and roll out (low additional institutional requirements)

Tools

  • Systems analysis (see: my Climate Crisis, Fossil Civilization analyses)
  • red line mapping for major players; plus green line = declared position or able to agree today, blue line = able to agree if others do, violet line = able to agree if conditions change (what changes are necessary needs to be specified)
  • analyze lessons learned from previous proposals

Existing proposals

Solution elements

Making fossils more expensive

  • Fossil extraction resistance
  • Border adjustment
  • Carbon taxes
  • Voluntary offsetting

Making renewables cheaper

  • Abundant renewable energy supply
  • Global decarbonization strategy
  • Local, regional and national decarbonization strategies

Reducing energy demand

  • Top-runner approach
  • Appropriate technologies
  • Switch from GDP to Gross National Happiness as central policy indicator
  • Reducing meat consumption

Addressing historic responsibility

  • Climate Fund

Enabling adaptation

Managing green carbon

Managing non-CO2 forcings

People

  • Yoshi Nishimura
  • Tom Athanasiou
  • Peter Vogelsanger
  • Nele Marien
  • John Jopling
  • Aubrey Meyer
  • Gerry Wolff
  • Bill Hare?
  • Benito Müller?
  • Adrián Fernández?
  • someone from WBGU
  • someone from Earth Atmospheric Trust proposal
  • someone from Saudi-Arabia
  • someone from Beyond Zero Emissions
  • someone from China
  • someone from the Fossil Industry

Personal tools

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